The poor in Russia again increased in the first quarter of 2019 figure rose from 13.9% to 14.3%. It follows from the data of Rosstat. According to the Agency, in 20.9 million income in the beginning of this year was below the subsistence minimum. For comparison, in the first quarter of 2018 if you count the new methodology of Rosstat with incomes below the subsistence minimum had 13.9% of the population, or 20.4 million people.
According to the explanatory note of Rosstat, the reason for the growth of the poor is not that the situation in the country worse. Supposedly the new method. In particular, the order of the Ministry of labor subsistence minimum in Russia was increased by more than 700 rubles. and amounted in the first quarter 10753 RUB If the figure remained at the level of inflation, then the number of poor would be lower. And so, compared with the previous year, the poor has increased by an impressive 2.5 million.
Recall, according to the “may” decree of Vladimir Putin, the government should reduce the level of poverty by 2024 half. In April, reporting to the state Duma, Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev has tried to prove that the Cabinet struggled with poverty struggling. So, before the election in 2018, officials have twice raised the minimum wage (currently RUB 11280), from which are calculated the main benefits to the poor. Higher than the inflation rate, were indexed public sector wages, and in 2019 for the actual inflation for 2018 are indexed and social benefits.
But the tactic of plugging holes in a dam that’s burst, not efficacy. And this is not surprising.
From 2013 to 2018, real disposable incomes fell by 8.5%. Campaign infusion in 2018 enabled the indicator to stabilize. However, in the first quarter of 2019, he fell again by 2.3% in annual terms.
However, 2013 saw a significant increase in prices. Especially on product groups that are subject to import substitution, and which became the subject of counter-sanctions. All this only increases the number of poor.
According to analysts, to really determine the percentage of the poor in a country where approximately 25 million people work in the non-tax sphere and therefore outside the sphere of statistical reporting, — all the same what to read tea leaves.
Plus, we have a huge number of people are de facto below the poverty line, but from the standpoint of the state are exactly on this line. This is primarily retirees who have a pension below the subsistence minimum, and who receives a Supplement from the regions to reach this minimum.
Is such a person to get sick and begin to buy medicines or to face external problems — for example, paying for grandchildren, as he begins to sink into poverty.
Really a retired poor, but from a statistical point of view — not at all. Just because his income by at least 1 ruble above the subsistence minimum.
Another significant group of poor women with two children who do not have husbands living in rural and similar areas, small cities and settlements of city type. They get the city and district guides, and authorities these benefits are often “blurry”, especially in subsidized regions.
Improve their level of social support would be the most rational and from the point of view of reducing poverty and improving demographic situation.
In fact, the fight against poverty is possible — and quite effectively. And the best way of employment insurance and assistance with obtaining work. But the government Medvedev prefers to “play the numbers” statistics, and not solve the problem fundamentally. Just because such a decision would be in favor of the people, and not for the benefit of big capital.
— Today, compared with the 2018 year, the poverty situation has worsened, — the doctor of economic Sciences, Professor, chief researcher, Institute of Economics, RAS Nikita Krichevsky. — On the one hand, due to the fact that real incomes continue to fall, and on the other rising inflation and mandatory payments, such as housing and payment of debt.
Therefore, the number of poor increases. And here we must, of course, chided Rosstat on the methodology of calculation.
Rosstat said, poor is the one whose income is below the subsistence level. An algorithm for calculating a living wage is simple. At the time — the early 1990s — was developed by the reduced standards of a healthy diet, which was significantly less than the late.
For example, milk and dairy products (yoghurt, cheese, butter, cottage cheese) in 1990 recommended to consume 404 kg per year. Today this figure is equal to 325 kg per year. Despite the fact that the world health organization still recommends the 404 kg.
This adjustment occurred for meat, fish, other foods.
Accordingly, based on these reduced standards were compiled by the consumer basket. And this basket turned into money. The method of calculating inflation excludes from her such important things as utilities and motor fuel.
That is, inflation is so small not because Rosstat, something stirs, or does not see the obvious. The case in the method of calculation.
So, returning to the subsistence level: it is based on physiological basket — how much this basket would cost in money at the moment. And then, based on this amount, calculated by Rosstat, the number of poor is calculated.
The mechanism, as you can see, is designed so that a small change in the method of calculation is affected by either an increase in the number of poor, or on its reduction.
“SP”: — what is in reality poor in Russia?
— The exact number counting is really difficult. First of all, because those who receive below a living wage, often work in the informal sector, or get natural products.
Actually — oddly enough — the poor in the country less than the official figure. But this is not associated with grimaces Rosstat, and the fact that he is simply not able to calculate how much the poor.
Here’s an example: up to a quarter of the population in Moscow and St. Petersburg tax and statistical bodies are not visible. They work in the informal sector do not pay taxes, and never spotted. In the whole country of such people is 18%.
By the way, these people can quietly to work and not work — tuneyadstvovat. Well, for example, to sit on the neck of the parents to be mistresses or Gigolos. Or they can be in search of work.
We have the opinion polls show unemployment is 4% and 13%. That is, according to opinion polls today, the employment of 87% and not 96% as according to Rosstat. The difference is 9%, the potential of the people can be attributed to the poor.
While Rosstat ignores the problem of population decline. The population is shrinking both due to deaths of old men, and quite able-bodied people who have fallen victim to an unbalanced diet, insatiable consumption of alcoholic beverages, antisocial lifestyle. That is, people who got the disease, and ended up at the cemetery.
This is also a consequence of poverty. And if we add to an increase in poverty of those who died before her time, poor on the circle will get even more.
That is, poverty would be higher if these people lived. But due to the fact that they died, poverty rates are somewhat lower.
“SP”: — How can you believe Rosstat poverty?
— Rosstat de facto government authority, it is the authority of the Ministry of economic development. And to wait from it some connected with production of impartial and independent information, of course, is not necessary. It acts in the interests of power, propaganda and ideology.
— Judging by the sensations, Russia is in constant growth, with commodities, — said the Deputy of the state Duma of the third and fourth convocations, a retired Colonel Viktor Alksnis. — I see in the “roundabout” and “Auchan” — the popular shopping carts that people carry to the checkout, “lose weight” in their eyes. People limit themselves in the grocery kits — not luxuries.
Let me remind you, I live in Tuchkovo is the suburbs. So, among the familiar conversations such as: there is a price increase, the decline in living standards, rising costs of utilities. And yet this is not kompensiruet an increase in wages, pensions and benefits.
In reality, in Russia there is the impoverishment of the population — how would the authorities not tried to hide it. And we need to understand the power of powerless to change this trend, as powerless to change the economic situation in the country. The Kremlin still relies on the sale of raw materials to the West, in the industrial production in the country is not developed, and the number of jobs is declining.
I have in Tuchkovo, all the plants are — but until the 1990s it was a major center for the construction industry in the Moscow region. As a result, all the local guys in the morning on the train going to work in Moscow, mainly in security.
And the question is: what do people live, to teach children what to be treated? Education is essentially paid for, and medical services are increasingly unaffordable. Pay medical institutions is increasing, and the number of state and municipal, and the number of doctors is constantly decreasing.
All this leads to impoverishment of the population. And government, by and large, do not care.