Ministry of economic development has revised macroeconomic forecast for 2019 and 2020, says RBC. According to new data from the Ministry, the growth of real incomes of Russians in 2019 will be reduced ten — fold from 1 to 0.1%. This means the change in real disposable income close to zero, for the second year in a row. In addition, the Agency increased the projected level of poverty by the end of 2020 increased to 12.5%.
GDP growth next year is also now expected to be modest, but there are prospects for reducing inflation against the background of the fracture of the credit cycle.
In the baseline scenario of economic development, which results in the publication, stated that consumer demand will slow down in 2020 to 0.6%. The growth of the portfolio of consumer loans will slow to 4% annually by the end of 2020. But it is possible and recession. «In the absence of effective measures to limit the growth of the consumer loan portfolio with a high probability is implemented by the scenario of «sudden stop» consumer lending», — warns the Ministry.
Overall key risks the MAYOR believes the global recession, uncontrolled development of the credit cycle, as well as the stalling of structural reforms.
On the background of the deceleration in consumer demand, the main driver of economic growth in 2020 will invest: they are projected to increase by 5%.