The export of oil and gas by itself can not feed 145 million mouths to feed. Hopelessly sick person cannot rely on their labor as a source of funds for the continuation of life. He is totally dependent on external support. If you have a pension, alms, savings, or children to feed his existence continues. Runs out external power supply – it is dying.
That’s just the degradation of the internal circuit of the Russian economy has led to a situation where dependence on external resource flows has become almost absolute. A reason for joy only one: to stay in the supine and inactive state of the energy required is less than for the active life.
If earlier commodity revenues played the role of doping for our economy, but now it is atrophied so that the injection to do is pointless. And oil money in our economy is almost not received: the surplus remaining after the issuance of rations to the population, putting off as meaningless “fat stores” in foreign exchange reserves and other stash.
Here is a good example. 10 месяцев2018, surplus of current account in Russia reached $87.9 bn, an increase of four times over the same period last year. This is due solely to an increase in oil prices. Imagine what would happen if the economy received an infusion of B90 adobansu? But in reality, she got nothing. Of this amount $35.7 billion settled in Central Bank international reserves. That is real money, actually working on the economy of third countries, the Central Bank only accumulate ious. Another $42.2 billion amounted from January to October, net capital outflow from Russia.
Just like in the classic puzzle in arithmetic: one tube joined at the other bridge. Bottom line is exactly $10 billion “windfall”. But it is in theory. In reality, the Central Bank expects year-end capital outflow of $66 billion in connection with the upcoming payments on foreign debts. But the revenues from hydrocarbon exports will inevitably fall behind depreciating barrel. Compared to peak rates in October ($85 per barrel Brent) black goo sank by almost half. In the end, the balance is guaranteed to be negative.
Once again I state: it flows in the oil and gas pipe in Russia less resources than flows through the financial sector. The price of oil steadily grew over 2.5 years. The result – the economy has less money…
In the end, the only driver of the economy is the budget, and the scheme is the following. The state is pressing the Treasury 80-90% export margin, and then distributes it to the population, often quite fun, for the mere symbolic circulation of a work which has no meaning. The remaining part of the budget is spent on “investment”: in the best case it tanks and combat helicopters in the worst – stadiums and other football facilities.
Yes, in the process of implementation of these megaprojects, the economy nominally growing, but the result is what economists call dead capital. Production of the tank and 30 tractors requires approximately equal amounts of labor and resource consumption. However, the tractor went down the Assembly line, start to work and generate income. And the contents of the tank is a spending budget and nothing more.
How many billion budget sinking for the construction of the cosmodrome “East”? But this is one launch a year – and even if it is commercial, still not able to pay even the current contents of this object. Therefore, from an economic point of view, the construction of the cosmodrome in the far East is pointless.
And since it is actually idle, meaning there is no what point of view is just an excuse for large-scale theft, nothing more. Thus oil and gas revenues eaten away directly, bypassing the economic multiplier.
With incomes, the situation is quite sad. The Minister of labour and social protection Maxim Topilin just gushes optimism: “According to statistics, this year, wages are growing in real and in nominal terms at an unprecedented rate — almost 11%.” But nominal growth – an abstract value. In dashing 90-e nominal wages were growing at 500% per year or more – so what?
Putin said at his last press conference praised the 10-month growth of real incomes of the population at 7.4%. But who really felt – in addition to government officials, whose incomes are categorically divorced from the outcomes of the activity?
The Ministry of Finance in their assessment is more modest: according to the calculations Department Siluanov real wages adjusted for inflation for итогам2018 the city is expected to grow by 4.1% compared to the same period last year. Rosstat also estimating the real income of the population, claims that for 10 months they have grown on 1,6% in comparison with January-October last year (this is excluding lump sum payments to pensioners in январе2017, otherwise the figure would look more modest).
And then there are serious questions to methodology of state statistics. For example, the king commanded to raise all public sector wages doubled – is it possible to disobey? On the ground are doing brilliantly simple: raise the salary of employees twice, and then translate them part-time. And Rosstat seriously consider this as a twofold increase in wages.
The fact that real incomes continue to decline, according to data and consumer activity of the population, which, according to expert estimates, all falls and falls.
However even if the authorities manage to prove that you can consume the mass of steel (prices) more a question of fact, whereby this is achieved. Economic recovery and income growth – or the growth of debt and decrease savings.
The share of incomes of the population directed on savings, now at least 18 years of age. More than half of the citizens have no savings, 20% savings do not allow you to live more than a month in case of job loss. If from January 2017 to июль2018 G. enterprises increased their debt to banks by only 4.8 percent, the debt burden on the population for the same half year increased by 25.5%!
These data completely rule out even a hypothetical chance to see in Russia’s economic growth. In a particular banking sector growth, albeit symbolic, is the place to be. Although the trend here is mixed: banks-monopolists show record profits, medium and small– record losses.
If economic growth was not observed in a very prosperous oil prices by 2018, what can we expect in the next – despite the fact that at the end of this year, the oil began to become cheaper…
In the manufacturing sector upadnicheskie configured every second. The main brake on the economy, according to 46% of entrepreneurs is unprecedented increase in the tax burden. The decrease in demand is considered the main cause of economic decline 39%, 37% complain of a catastrophic shortage of funds for development.
Sanctions, according to business representatives, are not even in the top 5 factors hindering the development of the country. All major issues are exclusively internal. Therefore, 84% of entrepreneurs want to get rid of its Russian assets, but to buy them to no one. In General, foreign investors quickly withdraw capital from Russia, which in fact has no concept of economic development.
All the current economic concept of the Russian Federation is reduced to one: stay the day hold the night. About any major development of speech does not go: because it requires very different and Medvedev Siluanova. But, as I said, the replacement can not be had.