The cold war, the fifth stage for Russia and the first for China, escalates.
What don’t tell policy and the military.
The cold war is beneficial to all the major players (USA, China, Russia) as a stimulus for economic restructuring, strengthening the “self-sufficiency economy” and accelerate technological development.
For USA the cold war — a mode of existence in the next 10 years. Price “Russia forced to a strategic retreat on the conditions the winner of” the cold war is equal to the earnings of America for 10 years (Reaganomics). The price of maintaining a unipolar world of Olympus — 35 years, and at the time of entry into the cold war on two fronts will be close to 50.
Without a qualitative development of the productive forces to break the debt situation, neither households nor firms nor the state is impossible, and without the cold war it is impossible to increase borrowing without risk of collision with the rising cost of debt, domestic instability amid the growth of “technological unemployment”.
For China, achieved significant progress during the industrial revolution, creating new jobs and involving welfare of the population, the goal is to become a leader of technological development by 2025 without “austerity” — is impossible, and the cold war stimulates tightening.
U.S. statement on opening a second front in the East and transition to the acute phase of the cold war with China gives Russia a chance to consolidate the status of guardian of Eurasia according to the formula “back to back”, becoming in the role of the country-civilization, accelerate the re-industrialization and the breakthrough in the fourth technological order on the basis of the sovereign financial system.
The slogan of “Just war” is outdated, together with the veterans of the great Patriotic and Second world war. Does this mean that people are ready for war? The war affecting its own territory. Not ready, as evidenced by coronavirus hysteria, but willing to savor of war on foreign soil.
Policy evil of Russophobia increase the number of Russian, “likely to repeat” for the sake of the nation.
The reasons for the global war no
The first world began with the Sarajevo reason, according to many. Misleading. Reasons not dominate the reasons. Was the reason — it was the second industrial revolution in Europe, will intensify the struggle for leadership and markets. The Russian Empire made a mistake and got involved in a foreign war. The second world was based on theories of racial superiority and theories of the military asiasta providing for the extension of territory and the struggle for resources.
Today, only one occasion has the shape of reason.
This is an attack on the dollar as the world reserve currency through the failure of countries in OPEC+, from the calculations denominated in petrodollars, but I think that will be resolved through the mechanisms of unfair competition, interference in the internal Affairs and organization of local conflicts.
Is it possible the Third world war without the use of strategic nuclear weapons? No, impossible. Is it possible Intercontinental thermonuclear war between NATO and Russia or US and China and is it possible to win it?
To defeat the enemy and survive the most possible and impossible to win. The fundamental, classic reasons for waging this war do not exist.
War will not decrease, but will increase the debts of the United States at least twice, and not able to accelerate the development of any of the countries of the triangle.
Poses a risk of unacceptable damage. Russia is not prepared for such a war, otherwise it’s military budget would be decreasing until the transition to the Sakharov configuration attacks.
The three realize that the application of the transition to the 4th technological order and exclusive leadership of the insolvent in the next 10 years, and the building of a new technological order on the fundamental discoveries of the 70’s (not new) will require at least a double increase in volumes of electricity production.
Breakthroughs in basic science require huge investments and a different approach. The business approach is not working, and States have no money. Quantum generator, computer, graphene from the ‘ 70s. “Shuttle”, “Buran”, su-34, F-35, aka the Yak-41, hypersonic Internet from the ‘ 80s.
The US and China, learned how to improve technologies based on the old fundamental discoveries United States and the Soviet Union, and engaged in pseudo-scientific innovation and implementation, import of technology and brains, so there are mutual accusations of theft of intellectual property.
Do not focus on fundamental scientific discoveries, and financial and energy resources to transition to industrial revolution 4.0 on the achievements of the ‘ 70s no.
Russia in the face of the Soviet Union in the early 80’s was ready for the break in the 4th technological order to the late 90s, subject to the abandonment of the policy of strategic retreat, pegging the ruble to the dollar, reproduction idlers in non-scientific circles and cultural institutions.
Today Russia is developing the mechanisms of implementation of scientific achievements, improve the system of pseudo-scientific innovation and ready for a new fundamental breakthroughs that resemble natural ones on the basis of technology, but no system investments denominated in a revolutionary production.
Possible war between Ukraine and Russia
Impossible. If Kiev will go and red lines in the Donbass, Russia, based on Article 51 of the UN Charter, will hold a local operation to enforce peace. It is not excluded that in the Serbian script.
And even if a large-scale invasion, then the war will only be considered prior to the appointment of the new government in Kiev, which will call these events the struggle for the liberation of Ukraine from the Nazis, and the date of taking control of Kiev, legalized as a national holiday — Day of liberation.
The reasons for local conflicts
The transition to a policy of selfishness destroys the foundations of American moralizing, and the pandemic is killing it. The right to moralizing material. Promotes economic expansion on the terms of the owner.
The expansion of NATO to the East, and the Balkans had three objectives: creating the conditions for economic dominance of the leader, the replication targets for retaliation, forcing Russia to retract the arms race, the inference of retaliation leader and valuable allies.
The deployment areas of missile defense and plans to move nuclear weapons in Poland and Romania — proof. Poles swaggered, but my dream is to share “happiness” with Bulgaria, Montenegro, Ukraine and Georgia, but to realize dreams into reality is not possible. The missile defense system is quickly crushed, and Ukraine and Georgia fall under a pre-emptive strike Russia at the time of placement.
Debts are holding back the development of the United States. The temptation to write off non-market methods big as the temptation of unacceptable damage to a competitor by non-market methods. Understand that the destabilization stimulates the capital inflow into America, and that a party is faced with the militant manifestation of unfair competition, will respond asymmetrically, until the unacceptable damage.
The pandemic demonstrated the greater vulnerability of complex economies. In the transition to the tough confrontation of the Russian and Chinese economies will suffer, but stand, and the us will fall.
Local conflicts can be very sensitive for individual countries. Flushing long TVD will instantly moved to the objects located in the neighboring with the leader territories.
The conflict in the middle East between Russia and the United States will move to Europe. Broke out in the South China sea between the US and China will move on Taiwan, to South Korea and Japan. The damage to satellites would be unacceptable to them, but will not lead to an Intercontinental exchange of blows between the leaders.
Rationalism and technology will increase the damage in local conflicts
Strategic weapons will remain the weapon of deterrence, and until then, until you have struck a tactical weapon against targets on the national territories of the countries of the triangle, will not be applied, and in the case of incorrect use is destroyed on a collision course in the mode of self-destruction by mutual agreement of the attacking parties.
From hundreds of cheap aircraft and thousands of missiles to achieve the goals of the unit.
Common sense makes to produce less weapons, but higher quality, which increases the destructive potential local conflicts.
With the purpose of optimization of expenses on defense, defenders will destroy not only the missiles and their carriers, but also the locations of the vehicles and control centers.
In connection with the transition to the hypersonic and nuclear charges of low power decision to deliver tactical nuclear will shift from presidents to generals, colonels, and five years later to artificial intelligence. The attacked does not know about the configuration of the attacker’s charge, therefore, a retaliatory strike will be nuclear. With the exception of cases when the targets located beyond the boundaries of the national territory.
The aggressor, the enemy and the partners
In Ukraine, in Brussels and Washington, Russia is the enemy. The events in the Crimea and in the Donbas acts of aggression. For Russia, Ukraine, Brussels and Washington are brothers and partners, and the events in the Crimea and the Donbass is a consequence of the Pro-NATO coup in Kiev.
Ukrainian approval of Russia’s aggression is based on two axioms: the older brother endured, and will forgive; “and we have something for that?”. Is based on deriving benefits from conflict between Russia and Europe, which is confirmed by the proximity of: Russian Pro-Western intellectuals and Hrushevsky; Soviet dissidents and Bandera; Russian liberals and svidomye Ukrainians. The Ukrainian language is unstable. Disappear with the cessation of orders from partners.
The differences between Russia and Europe is fundamental. The definition of the enemy the Russians and the Anglo-Saxons are incompatible in principle.
Russian call enemies those who attacked or caused unacceptable damage. The Anglo — Saxons- those who are able to respond to the attack and harder to damage.
Economic, logistical, and military importance of Ukraine for Europe and Russia is negligible. Why Europeans took the risk of aggravation of relations with Russia invading Ukraine?
For direct access to Russian Ukrainians. For Russia they are relatives. For Europe — subject to reformat consciousness and mass manipulation of technologies with a view to transfer on the Russian living in Russia.
Russia, who initiated a strategic retreat for the end of the cold war, suffered huge economic, demographic and territorial losses, but the total military potential of modern Russia, the above Soviet. The Soviet Union fought for stable bipolar world with elements of convergence, which required constant strategic presence in all regions of the world.
Russia satisfied with a stable multipolar world based on indivisible security, allowing you to operate and answer calls from the national territory and that, in turn, reduces defense spending, increases combat efficiency of the armed forces.
About the victory and the victors in the cold war
For the United States victory — to guarantee the leadership of a unipolar world. Lose because they do not have sufficient resources to the war on two fronts, and attempt to feed through allies and satellites is fraught with the collapse of NATO and other integration associations.
For China, the image of victory — as a global technology leader, providing a high standard of living of the entire population of China. In conditions of tough confrontation with the US and Europe the goal is unattainable.
Russia does not dream about Olympus is the leader and has no plans to return to the bipolar world.
For Russia, the victory — indivisible security at least on the Eurasian continent, sustainable development of the state-civilization which is the guardian of peace in Eurasia, able to build and assist others in building relationships on terms of fair competition and mutually beneficial cooperation.
The image is realistic and attractive to others, which increases the chance of winning. It is important to remember that the cold war was not based and not based on the confrontation of ideologies, and is a convenient way to unfair competition, coercion of its own population to consolidate.
Is it possible to discharge through the “Cuban missile crisis 2.0”
Discharge is possible without crisis. It is sufficient to declare the dissolution of NATO and to withdraw US troops from neighboring Russia and China territories. A remake of the “Cuban missile crisis 2.0” is not to be expected, due to mistrust between the leaders and mnogoletie in the United States, is not conducive to the implementation of the agreements.
Rather, the discharge will come after hard of a local conflict scenario described above, and who will be in the role of Cuba — only time will tell.